Ask HN: Is Programming Dead?

4 points by w4ffl35 9 hours ago | 24 comments

On X people claim 100s of thousands of tech layoffs, ghost jobs, a dead industry. I don't see this anywhere else. Hackernews seems alive, wellfound seems alive (though impossible to get an interview) recruiters seem alive, though seemingly have no jobs. What is going on? What is reality? I am asking this on X and dev.to as well. Are we being silently replaced?

Edit:

I see posts like this often on X: https://x.com/Scobleizer/status/1836662119770849535

belter 8 hours ago | next |

This is what is happening...How good are you at taming cows?

Canada: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXCATPSOFTDEVE

Australia: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXAUTPSOFTDEVE

Germany: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXDE

UK: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXGB

USA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE

Tech Hiring...

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/03/was-there-a-tech-hir...

stray 8 hours ago | prev | next |

I think you're just seeing the results of years of over-hiring, followed by a slight downturn. When money is cheap, companies over-hire. And when money is expensive, companies fire/layoff/whatever.

In this variation of musical chairs, you need to be seated before the music stops.

w4ffl35 8 hours ago | root | parent |

Possibly but I've been at it for 20 years - this is the first time I've experienced a drought like this.

stray 6 hours ago | root | parent |

34 years for me -- and this looks a lot like 2000 to me.

JohnFen 4 hours ago | root | parent | next |

Even longer for me. This pales in comparison to the dot com bubble. The reality is that our industry has gone through these sorts of events a few times, and such events will happen again in the future.

w4ffl35 3 hours ago | root | parent |

Many people saying programming won't exist as a profession within a year or two which is what makes me wonder if I should pivot.

marssaxman 2 hours ago | root | parent | next |

The programming profession I originally got into does not really exist anymore, but all these years later I am still making a good living doing loosely related work which is still called "programming", despite the fact that most of the programming I used to do is now automated. Even if new LLM-based tools automate most of the work I currently do - and I think it unlikely that will happen on such a short timescale (ten years, maybe, certainly not one) - there will still be plenty of work to do: someone will always need to boss the machine around, using some formal language or other, and we will probably continue calling that person a "programmer".

JohnFen 3 hours ago | root | parent | prev |

Anyone saying that programming as a profession won't exist after a year or two are simply wrong. Period. There's literally no reason to think that would be true, and tons of reasons to think it isn't. Especially on such a short time scale.

The most dramatic possible outcome in the next couple of years (and one I think is probable) is that programming will change, as it always does. Not that it will stop being a thing.

JohnFen 4 hours ago | prev | next |

> On X people claim

Don't listen to random people on twitter. It is a poor reflection of reality.

w4ffl35 4 hours ago | root | parent |

It's rather well known tech accounts.

JohnFen 4 hours ago | root | parent |

That doesn't change my opinion at all.

w4ffl35 3 hours ago | root | parent |

You told me not to listen to random people on the internet, I don't. Includes you lol.

JohnFen 3 hours ago | root | parent |

Aside from the fact that I'm not on twitter -- yes indeed, I am a random person on the internet and you shouldn't take anything I say with any greater weight than any other random person.

That said, I'd argue that even if the person tweeting is famous, they still count as "random people on the internet" unless you are so familiar with them that you know what biases they have.

cranberryturkey 9 hours ago | prev | next |

It’s been going on since 2022 here in California

w4ffl35 8 hours ago | root | parent |

Are jobs being consolidated? Businesses starting but just don't need employees? AI can't do the job yet - is it people with little to no programming skills trying to ChatGPT their way through it?

The phenomenon seems to extend beyond California. I see many job listings constantly updated on Wellfound and elsewhere. Are these actually ghost jobs?

cranberryturkey 8 hours ago | root | parent |

No for tech anyway i think it just all the VC money dried up after they raised interest rates. No free money anymore so now that they are starting to lower interest rates, I expect it to improve in about a year.

KingOfCoders 9 hours ago | prev | next |

Not yet.

w4ffl35 9 hours ago | root | parent |

Thanks for responding, but this isn't super helpful - my experience has been that it is next to impossible to get a job interview as of the last year or so.

This is anecdotal, but it matches up with what I'm seeing people on social media say.